News
Central bank decisions, economic data, gold and oil, and plain-English guides to how currency trading works. Every article links to its primary sources.
The Bank of Japan's two-day meeting ends on 30 October with the quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices. September's opinions showed a board focused on preventing an inflation overshoot, and a minority urging no haste.
Five central banks decide in three days, from the Fed and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday to the ECB on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. US third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation come on Thursday, and Europe's clocks go back on Sunday.
Update: Japan's national CPI rose 2.1% on the year in September. Core inflation, excluding fresh food, was 2.1%, and core-core, excluding fresh food and energy, was 2.4%.
Update: Canada's CPI rose to 3.1% in September, UK unemployment was 4.7% and UK CPI 3.5%, the flash PMIs put the UK composite at 53.1 and the euro area at 51.9, and Japan's national CPI rose 2.1%.
Update: US CPI rose 3.7% on the year in September, Australia lost 39,300 jobs, UK GDP grew 0.1% in August, US retail sales rose 0.8%, and euro area inflation was confirmed at 3.8%.
METI's preliminary index fell to 102.6 and shipments dropped 2.5%. Its survey of manufacturers points to output rising 3.2% in September and 3.1% in October.
The European Central Bank's daily reference rate has fallen 3.6% since 4 September and 6.4% from its January high. Sterling, the Australian dollar and the yen also lost ground to the dollar.
Consumer prices excluding fresh food in Tokyo's 23 wards rose 2.7% from 1.8% in August, and the measure excluding fresh food and energy reached 3.0%. The Statistics Bureau credits water and childcare charges and lodging prices.
The Summary of Opinions from the 17–18 September meeting says one member called for a shift in policy phase and another said the Bank should accelerate hikes if prices overshoot. Another said there was no need for haste. The Tankan showed large manufacturers' sentiment at +24.
Update: the week's releases are out, from the flash PMIs to the SNB, Norges Bank and Riksbank decisions, Australian jobs and Canadian retail sales, and US PCE inflation and GDP followed on 30 September.
Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 1.7% from a year earlier, down from 1.8% in July, while inflation excluding both fresh food and energy held at 1.9%. Falling energy prices explain the gap between the two.
The Bank for International Settlements says 10-year yields rose by 24 to 34 basis points in major economies over its review period, and that the US Treasury's buyback plan of 19 August lowered yields and the dollar only briefly.
The Fed hiked, the BoE held on a split vote and the BoJ raised its rate to 1.25% — three decisions in four days that reset the rate map. Here is the week's full picture and what it changed for every currency.
A carry trade earns the interest difference between two currencies — and survives on risk rules, because the unwind is violent. Here is how to construct one properly.
Japan and the US intervened jointly in July to support the yen — a rare coordination that still shapes every yen trade. Here is what happened, why it worked, and what the authorities do next.
The BoJ raised its rate to 1.25% on 18 September while the Fed sits near 4%, and Japan has already intervened once this year — jointly with the US. Here is the three-sided dilemma and how it shapes the yen.
Crosses like EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY remove the dollar and trade two economies directly. Here is what changes without the dollar, and when the crosses are the cleaner trade.
When fear rises, the yen strengthens — sometimes. The haven behaviour is real, structural and full of exceptions. Here is where it comes from and when it actually works.
Risk sentiment decides which pairs trend and which reverse before any data lands. Here is a five-minute morning read — the instruments that show the mood and what they mean for your pairs.
Central banks sometimes buy or sell their own currency to move it — and the results range from decisive to futile. Here is what intervention is, when it succeeds, and the tell-tale signs to watch.
The Policy Board voted 7–2 on 18 September to lift the overnight call rate target from 1.00% to 1.25%, saying underlying inflation is approaching its 2% goal. Two members dissented.
USD/JPY is the pair where US yields meet the Bank of Japan — with the threat of intervention sitting over both. Here is the three-force driver map and how they take turns leading.
Carry trades earn steady yield for months and then collapse in days — and the collapse is structural, not accidental. Here is the mechanics of the unwind and why it hits every market at once.
The Asian session is quiet, range-bound and dismissed by most traders — which is exactly why its range matters so much. Here is how to trade it, and how to use it even if you don't.
EUR/JPY bundles the euro's policy story with the yen's haven status into the market's favourite sentiment cross. Here is what drives it and how to trade it.
GBP/JPY combines sterling's energy with the yen's sensitivity to rates and risk, producing the widest ranges in the majors. Here is how the cross works and how to trade it without being shaken out.
Rate decisions move currencies through the vote, the statement and the press conference — not just the rate itself. Here is how to read all four parts and trade the day with the risk controlled.
USD/JPY pays you for the rate gap and threatens you with intervention. Here is how the Bank of Japan, US yields and the threat of sudden yen-buying operations all fit into one trading plan.
News moves currency pairs faster than anything else in the market. Here is how to trade news releases with a plan, not a prayer — including the releases that matter, the risks around the release minute, and three strategies that respect both.
Exports rose 19.3% from a year earlier and imports 28.0%, according to the Ministry of Finance's provisional figures. Imports from the United States climbed 55.2%.
Update: on 18 September the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from 1.00% to 1.25% on a 7–2 vote. This preview sets out what traders were watching beforehand.
Japan's Ministry of Finance bought yen on 31 July in coordination with the US Treasury, Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki said on 3 August, adding that Japan stands ready to act again.
A pip is the smallest standard price step in a currency pair. Here is how pips, pipettes and pip values work on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, crosses and gold.
Currencies trade around the clock on weekdays, but not with the same liquidity. Session times in UTC, the overlaps that matter and the daylight-saving trap.
Central bank decisions are the biggest scheduled events in forex. Why rates matter, why a hike can weaken a currency, and what to read beyond the decision.
When markets panic, money flows into a few currencies seen as safe. Why the yen, franc and dollar play that role, and when it breaks down.
How much you trade matters more than where you enter. A step-by-step method for sizing positions from your stop-loss and the amount you are willing to lose.
How to read a currency quote, which pairs count as majors, crosses and exotics, and why spreads and risks differ so much between them.
Borrowing in a low-interest currency to hold a high-interest one can earn steady income, until the exchange rate turns. How carry works and where the risk hides.
Currencies stop trading on Friday evening, but the news doesn't. What happens to your positions and stops when the market reopens at a different price.
Regulators cap how much leverage brokers can give retail clients. The limits by market and region, and what professional status changes.
When a currency moves too far, too fast, authorities can buy or sell it directly. How intervention works, Japan's record operations and what it means for traders.
On 22 September 1985 the finance ministers and central bank governors of five major economies agreed the dollar should fall. How the Plaza Accord worked, what followed and why traders still mention it.
