News
Central bank decisions, economic data, gold and oil, and plain-English guides to how currency trading works. Every article links to its primary sources.
The Governing Council announces its decision at 14:15 Frankfurt time on 29 October, six weeks after raising rates. Eurostat's flash estimate put September inflation at 3.8%, and there are no new staff projections at this meeting.
Five central banks decide in three days, from the Fed and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday to the ECB on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. US third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation come on Thursday, and Europe's clocks go back on Sunday.
The ECB's Governing Council opens its October meeting on 28 October. It raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points on 10 September.
S&P Global's flash estimate puts the euro area composite output index at 51.9, down from 53.1 in September. Services fell to 51.7, and manufacturing output to 52.4.
The ECB's euro reference rate for sterling was 0.8377 pounds per euro on 22 October, matching the level of 29 May 2025. Over October the euro has lost about 1.9% against the pound.
The European Commission's flash estimate puts euro area consumer confidence at −17.9 in October and the EU figure at −17.3. Both readings show households less optimistic than in September.
The ECB's euro-dollar reference rate was 1.1205 on 22 October, down from 1.1253 on 16 October. Between 7 and 15 October no reference rate was above 1.1253, so 16 October was the highest since 6 October.
The ZEW Centre for European Economic Research reports that its expectations indicator for Germany fell 6.6 points to 28.1 in October. The reading is still positive, so more respondents expect improvement than deterioration.
Destatis reports producer prices of industrial products sold in Germany up 6.7% on the year in September and 1.9% on August. Energy prices rose 14.9%, while prices excluding energy rose 3.2%.
Destatis reports wholesale selling prices in Germany up 8.7% on the year in September and 1.9% on August. Mineral oil products were 48.8% dearer than a year earlier.
Destatis reports German exports of €137.6 billion in August, down 0.8% on July and up 6.2% on a year earlier. Imports were €118.1 billion, leaving a surplus of €19.5 billion.
Eurostat's first estimate shows euro area retail trade volumes up 0.1% on July in August, and the EU also rose 0.1%. July's euro area fall was 0.6%.
Update: S&P Global's flash UK composite PMI rose to 53.1 in October, while the euro area composite fell to 51.9. The US flash is not covered in this update.
Update: ZEW's economic expectations indicator for Germany fell 6.6 points to 28.1 in October, from 34.7 in September, the ZEW reported on 20 October.
Destatis says production rose 2.0% on July, led by construction, while carmakers' output fell 5.4%. July's decline was revised to 1.2%.
Destatis says real new orders in manufacturing dropped 10.6% on July after seasonal and calendar adjustment. The figures are provisional and come a day before its industrial production report.
Destatis's final figures match its 30 September estimate: consumer prices 3.3% higher than a year earlier and 0.6% higher on the month. Core inflation was 2.4%.
Eurostat's first estimate shows output down in intermediate goods and non-durable consumer goods, while capital goods rose 0.4%. Belgium recorded the largest monthly fall, at 5.1%.
Eurostat's first estimate shows exports up 9.9% on the year and imports up 16.7%, reversing July's €10.7 billion surplus. Machinery and vehicles drove the swing.
Eurostat's final September figure matches the flash estimate: the annual rate is 3.8%, up from 3.2% in August and 2.2% a year earlier. EU inflation was also 3.8%.
INSEE's final results raise its provisional 3.0% estimate to 3.1%, with core inflation, services and food all accelerating and energy rising again.
The Governing Council's account of its 9–10 September meeting, published on 8 October, describes the increase to a 2.50% deposit rate as a robust decision and says the full effect of the energy shock is still to come.
Update: Canada's CPI rose to 3.1% in September, UK unemployment was 4.7% and UK CPI 3.5%, the flash PMIs put the UK composite at 53.1 and the euro area at 51.9, and Japan's national CPI rose 2.1%.
Update: US CPI rose 3.7% on the year in September, Australia lost 39,300 jobs, UK GDP grew 0.1% in August, US retail sales rose 0.8%, and euro area inflation was confirmed at 3.8%.
Eurostat estimates that 11.357 million people were out of work in the euro area in August, 26,000 more than in July, with the rate unchanged at 6.4% for a fourth month.
Destatis's provisional figure is 0.4 point above August's 2.9% and the highest this year. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, held at 2.4%.
The Federal Employment Agency said the usual autumn pick-up began without momentum. The seasonally adjusted rate stayed at 6.4% and registered vacancies are 30,000 higher than a year ago.
INSEE's provisional estimate shows consumer prices 3.0% above a year earlier, up from 2.4% in August. On the harmonised measure used for euro area comparisons the rate is 3.4%.
Energy prices at the factory gate rose 5.6% in the month and 21.0% on the year, while prices excluding energy rose 0.2% and 3.4%, Eurostat reported.
The European Central Bank's daily reference rate has fallen 3.6% since 4 September and 6.4% from its January high. Sterling, the Australian dollar and the yen also lost ground to the dollar.
Eurostat's flash estimate shows prices rising 0.6% in the month and inflation up from 3.2% in August. Core inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco edged up to 2.5%. The ECB meets on 28–29 October.
S&P Global's flash composite PMI jumped to 58.4 in the US and 53.1 in the eurozone, while the UK's fell to 51.7 on softer new business and rising input costs.
Update: the September flash PMIs are out — the US hit a 62-month high at 58.4, the eurozone rose to 53.1 and the UK slowed to 51.7. This preview has the release times and August's baseline.
Update: the week's releases are out, from the flash PMIs to the SNB, Norges Bank and Riksbank decisions, Australian jobs and Canadian retail sales, and US PCE inflation and GDP followed on 30 September.
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Hourly labour costs increased 3.1% in the euro area and 3.2% in the EU in the second quarter, Eurostat said, with wages and non-wage costs both contributing.
Output fell 0.1% in the euro area and 0.3% in the EU from June, Eurostat said on 16 September, with energy and capital goods rising but non-durable consumer goods down 1.6%.
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Eurostat's first estimate shows the surplus for January to July at €17.0 billion, down from €92.8 billion a year earlier, as imports outpaced exports. The EU's deficit with China reached €36.5 billion in July.
Germany's ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment rose 0.5 points in September, while expectations for the euro area fell 5.6 points to +25.8. ZEW's president named high energy prices as the main risk.
Eurostat's 7 September estimate shows euro area GDP up 0.6% in Q2 2026 after no growth in Q1, with net exports adding 0.9 percentage points and employment up 0.1%.
The European Central Bank lifted its deposit rate to 2.50% on 10 September and now expects inflation to average 2.1% in 2028, still just above its target.
