Tokyo core inflation jumps to 2.7% in September, above the Bank of Japan's 2% target
Consumer prices excluding fresh food in Tokyo's 23 wards rose 2.7% from 1.8% in August, and the measure excluding fresh food and energy reached 3.0%. The Statistics Bureau credits water and childcare charges and lodging prices.
Consumer prices excluding fresh food in Tokyo's 23 wards rose 2.7% in September 2026 from a year earlier, up from 1.8% in August, according to the Statistics Bureau of Japan's preliminary figures published on 2 October. Tokyo is a leading indicator for the national figures, which follow on 23 October.
The three measures
- All items: +2.7% (August: 1.9%). The index was 102.5, with 2025 as 100, up 0.6% from August after seasonal adjustment
- Excluding fresh food (core): +2.7% (August: 1.8%). The index was 102.6, up 0.9% on the month after seasonal adjustment
- Excluding fresh food and energy: +3.0% (August: 2.0%). The index was 103.0, up 0.7% on the month
The core rate is the highest since November 2025, when it was 2.8%, and above the Bank of Japan's 2% target.
What drove the jump
The Bureau's breakdown credits three items with most of the widening in the all-items rate from August: childcare fees (0.29 percentage point), water charges (0.24) and lodging charges (0.12). Fresh food held the rate back by 0.15 point. Local press reports linked the water and childcare moves to the end of Tokyo Metropolitan Government measures introduced last year, so part of the rise reflects a base effect rather than broad price pressure.
Energy remained a drag. Energy prices were 1.9% lower than a year earlier, with electricity down 2.6% and city gas down 0.5%, while lodging charges were 4.6% higher.
How it compares with the national figures
Japan's national core CPI was 1.7% in August, and the national figure excluding fresh food and energy was 1.9% (report). Tokyo's 3.0% on the second measure is well above that, but Tokyo figures are noisier and are influenced by local policy.
What it means for the Bank of Japan and the yen
The Bank raised its policy rate to 1.25% on 18 September (report), and its board discussed preventing an upward deviation in prices (opinions report). Strong readings strengthen the case for another increase, though the temporary local factors argue for caution. For USD/JPY, this sits against the wide gap to US rates (carry trade explained).
What happens next
National CPI for September is published on 23 October, and Tokyo's October figures on 30 October, the day the Bank of Japan's two-day meeting ends.
Sources
Common questions
What was Tokyo's core CPI in September 2026?
2.7% from a year earlier, up from 1.8% in August, excluding fresh food. The measure excluding fresh food and energy was 3.0%.
Why did Tokyo inflation jump in September 2026?
The Statistics Bureau's breakdown credits childcare fees, water charges and lodging charges. Local reports tied the first two to the end of Tokyo government measures from last year, so part of the rise is a base effect.
Is Tokyo CPI a good guide to national inflation?
It is published earlier than the national figures and often points the same way, but it is noisier and affected by local policy. National core CPI was 1.7% in August 2026.
Is Japan's inflation above the Bank of Japan's 2% target?
Tokyo core CPI was above 2% in September 2026. National core inflation was 1.7% in August; the September national figure is due on 23 October.
When is the next Tokyo CPI release?
30 October 2026 for October, the same day the Bank of Japan's October meeting ends.
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