News
Central bank decisions, economic data, gold and oil, and plain-English guides to how currency trading works. Every article links to its primary sources.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes its advance estimate of third-quarter GDP and the September personal income and PCE price index on 29 October at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
The Bank of Japan's two-day meeting ends on 30 October with the quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices. September's opinions showed a board focused on preventing an inflation overshoot, and a minority urging no haste.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes the September monthly consumer price index on 28 October. Annual inflation rose to 4.0% in August from 3.5% in July, and trimmed mean inflation was 3.6%.
The Bank of Canada announces its decision at 9:45 a.m. Eastern Time on 28 October. The policy rate was held at 2.25% in September.
The Governing Council announces its decision at 14:15 Frankfurt time on 29 October, six weeks after raising rates. Eurostat's flash estimate put September inflation at 3.8%, and there are no new staff projections at this meeting.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its October decision at 2:00 p.m. local time on 28 October. The official cash rate was raised to 2.75% in September.
The FOMC announces its decision at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on 28 October, after raising rates to 3.75%–4.00% in September. There is no Summary of Economic Projections, and third-quarter GDP and September PCE come the next morning.
Five central banks decide in three days, from the Fed and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday to the ECB on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. US third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation come on Thursday, and Europe's clocks go back on Sunday.
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The FOMC meets on 27 and 28 October, with the decision due on 28 October. The committee raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 September, and its next projections come in December.
The ECB's Governing Council opens its October meeting on 28 October. It raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points on 10 September.
S&P Global's flash survey puts the UK composite output index at 53.1 for October, up from 52.0 in September. Services business activity reached 53.1, and manufacturing PMI was 52.8.
The ONS first estimate shows retail sales volumes in Great Britain down 0.4% in September. August's rise was revised up to 0.7%, and July's fall was revised to 0.4%.
S&P Global's flash estimate puts the euro area composite output index at 51.9, down from 53.1 in September. Services fell to 51.7, and manufacturing output to 52.4.
The ECB's euro reference rate for sterling was 0.8377 pounds per euro on 22 October, matching the level of 29 May 2025. Over October the euro has lost about 1.9% against the pound.
Treasury's daily par yield curve shows the 10-year yield at 4.96% on 22 October, down from 5.13% a day earlier. The 2-year yield fell 16 basis points to 4.65%.
The European Commission's flash estimate puts euro area consumer confidence at −17.9 in October and the EU figure at −17.3. Both readings show households less optimistic than in September.
The Labor Department's advance estimate shows initial claims at 194,000 for the week ending 17 October, down 6,000 from the previous week. The four-week average is 197,750.
The ECB's euro-dollar reference rate was 1.1205 on 22 October, down from 1.1253 on 16 October. Between 7 and 15 October no reference rate was above 1.1253, so 16 October was the highest since 6 October.
Stats NZ reports consumer prices 3.7% higher in the year to the September 2026 quarter, down from 4.1% in June. Petrol prices fell over the quarter but stayed above a year earlier.
The ONS reports UK CPI inflation at 3.5% in the year to September, up from 3.1% in August. Core inflation rose to 2.8%, and services inflation to 3.7%.
The ONS reports public sector net borrowing of £24.5 billion in September 2026, up £1.8 billion on the same month last year. The figures are provisional.
The ONS estimates the UK unemployment rate at 4.7% for June to August 2026, down 0.1 points on the quarter and on the year. The employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 rose to 75.3%.
The ONS early estimate puts UK vacancies at 691,000 in July to September 2026, 21,000 lower than in April to June. It is the first time since early 2021 that vacancies have been below 700,000.
The ZEW Centre for European Economic Research reports that its expectations indicator for Germany fell 6.6 points to 28.1 in October. The reading is still positive, so more respondents expect improvement than deterioration.
Destatis reports producer prices of industrial products sold in Germany up 6.7% on the year in September and 1.9% on August. Energy prices rose 14.9%, while prices excluding energy rose 3.2%.
The Census Bureau reports housing starts at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,221,000 in September, down 5.2% on August and 7.4% below September 2025. Permits were roughly flat at 1.4 million.
The NAHB and Wells Fargo housing market index fell three points to 29 in October, its lowest reading since June 2012. Some 43% of builders cut prices, the highest share in the 2020 to 2026 period.
Statistics Canada reports CPI inflation at 3.1% in September, up from 3.0% in August. Gasoline prices rose 27.8% on the year, while CPI excluding gasoline eased to 2.2%.
The ONS estimates UK GDP rose 0.1% in August 2026, after growth of 0.4% in July. Annual growth of 2.1% is the highest since August 2022, and production rose 0.8% on the month.
The ABS reports employment fell by 39,300 in September 2026 to 14,782,700. The unemployment rate was 4.7%, and the participation rate slipped to 66.8%.
Destatis reports wholesale selling prices in Germany up 8.7% on the year in September and 1.9% on August. Mineral oil products were 48.8% dearer than a year earlier.
The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million in September, up 1.5% on August but 2.2% lower than a year earlier. The median price was $417,500.
Destatis reports German exports of €137.6 billion in August, down 0.8% on July and up 6.2% on a year earlier. Imports were €118.1 billion, leaving a surplus of €19.5 billion.
Eurostat's first estimate shows euro area retail trade volumes up 0.1% on July in August, and the EU also rose 0.1%. July's euro area fall was 0.6%.
The Census Bureau and BEA report the US goods and services deficit at $105.6 billion in August, up $12.7 billion from July. The goods deficit rose $12.8 billion.
Update: Statistics Canada's advance estimate puts total manufacturing sales up 0.1% in September. The official September figure is due on 13 November.
Update: the ONS first estimate shows UK retail sales volumes in Great Britain down 0.4% in September, with August revised up to a 0.7% rise.
Update: S&P Global's flash UK composite PMI rose to 53.1 in October, while the euro area composite fell to 51.9. The US flash is not covered in this update.
Update: Japan's national CPI rose 2.1% on the year in September. Core inflation, excluding fresh food, was 2.1%, and core-core, excluding fresh food and energy, was 2.4%.
Update: the ONS put UK CPI inflation at 3.5% in September, up from 3.1% in August. Core inflation rose to 2.8% and services inflation to 3.7%.
Update: the Census Bureau reported housing starts of 1,221,000 at an annual rate in September, down 5.2% from August, with building permits at 1,400,000.
Update: ZEW's economic expectations indicator for Germany fell 6.6 points to 28.1 in October, from 34.7 in September, the ZEW reported on 20 October.
Update: the ONS puts UK unemployment at 4.7% for June to August, down 0.1 points on the quarter and the year. Vacancies fell to 691,000 in July to September, an early estimate.
The Federal Reserve said industrial output rose 0.7% in September after a 0.1% gain in August. Output grew at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter, and motor vehicle output fell 3.0%.
The New York Fed's Empire State survey shows the general business conditions index up 18 points. New orders and shipments rose, and prices paid remain elevated.
The Philadelphia Fed's Third District survey shows the general activity index down for a second month. New orders and shipments also fell, though they remain positive.
Destatis says production rose 2.0% on July, led by construction, while carmakers' output fell 5.4%. July's decline was revised to 1.2%.
Destatis says real new orders in manufacturing dropped 10.6% on July after seasonal and calendar adjustment. The figures are provisional and come a day before its industrial production report.
Destatis's final figures match its 30 September estimate: consumer prices 3.3% higher than a year earlier and 0.6% higher on the month. Core inflation was 2.4%.
The National Bureau of Statistics said consumer inflation edged up from 0.8% in August. Food prices fell 1.7%, while energy and industrial goods pushed the index higher.
The NBS said factory-gate prices rose 5.0% on the year in September, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points from August. The producer price index is a measure of costs at the factory gate.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the all-items index rose 0.6% in September, lifting the 12-month rate to 3.7% from 3.4%. Core inflation was 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year.
