The euro falls to $1.1204 on ECB reference rates, its lowest since May 2025, after four straight weekly declines

The European Central Bank publishes a reference exchange rate for the euro against about 30 currencies every working day at 2:15 p.m. Central European Time. On Monday 5 October 2026 the euro's reference rate against the US dollar was $1.1204. That is the lowest since 16 May 2025, when it was $1.1194. These are the Bank's own daily snapshots, not trading prices: the euro traded at different levels through the day, and intraday lows are lower than a once-a-day fixing.

The path of EUR/USD on ECB reference rates

• 4 September: $1.1622
• 11 September: $1.1592
• 18 September: $1.1460
• 25 September: $1.1403
• 2 October: $1.1225
• 5 October: $1.1204

Those Friday readings are four consecutive weekly declines, and the drop from 4 September to 5 October is 3.6%. In the last week alone the reference rate went $1.1378 (28 September), $1.1355 (29 and 30 September), $1.1298 (1 October), $1.1225 (2 October) and $1.1204. The 2026 high on the ECB's series was $1.1974 on 28 January, so the euro has lost 6.4% since then. It remains well above its January 2025 trough of about $1.02.

The dollar against other currencies

Cross rates calculated from ECB reference rates (EUR/USD divided by EUR/GBP, and so on) show the dollar firmer against most of the major currencies since early September. These are FTC's calculations, not ECB publications:

• GBP/USD: 1.3225 on 5 October, from 1.3530 on 4 September
• AUD/USD: 0.6960, from 0.7203
• USD/CHF: 0.8310, from 0.8092
• USD/JPY: 158.23, from 156.25

On the yen, the same calculation puts USD/JPY at 163.91 on 28 July, the highest of 2026, 160.24 on 31 July, the day the Ministry of Finance bought yen in coordination with the US Treasury (report), and 156.68 on 3 August. At 158.23 it is back above the level of 3 August, but 3.5% below the July high. The euro also fell against sterling (EUR/GBP 0.8472 from 0.8590) and the yen (EUR/JPY 177.28 from 181.59), while edging down against the Swiss franc (EUR/CHF 0.9311 from 0.9405).

Why it moved: what the data do and don't show

The reference rates show what happened, not why. News reports on 5 October, including CNBC and Bloomberg, tied the euro's slide to political uncertainty in France and Spain and to fiscal worries in the euro area. FTC hasn't verified those explanations against a primary source, so treat them as market commentary. The policy and data backdrop is documented: the Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 September (report), the ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% on 10 September (report), the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.28% on 2 October (report) while euro area inflation hit 3.8% in September (report).

Inflation above target and a rate increase from the ECB would normally support a currency, and the euro's fall despite them is a reminder that rate differentials, growth and risk all pull at once. Cross rates explained shows the calculation used above, how the 10-year yield moves forex covers the US side, and how to trade EUR/USD covers the pair. The Fed decides on 28 October and the ECB on 29 October. Live prices: EUR/USD.