News
Central bank decisions, economic data, gold and oil, and plain-English guides to how currency trading works. Every article links to its primary sources.
Statistics Canada publishes official GDP by industry for August on 30 October. The July figure was flat, and the advance estimate for August is an increase of 0.2%.
The Bank of Canada announces its decision at 9:45 a.m. Eastern Time on 28 October. The policy rate was held at 2.25% in September.
Five central banks decide in three days, from the Fed and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday to the ECB on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. US third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation come on Thursday, and Europe's clocks go back on Sunday.
Statistics Canada reports CPI inflation at 3.1% in September, up from 3.0% in August. Gasoline prices rose 27.8% on the year, while CPI excluding gasoline eased to 2.2%.
Update: Statistics Canada's advance estimate puts total manufacturing sales up 0.1% in September. The official September figure is due on 13 November.
Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey shows employment down 0.3% after a 42,000 fall in August. The employment rate fell to 60.6%, its second monthly decline, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.5%.
Statistics Canada's full August report puts manufacturing sales at $79.9 billion, with primary metal sales at a record and transportation equipment down 2.6%. Volumes were flat.
CMHC recorded 19,984 starts in September against 22,375 a year earlier. Starts for January to September total 170,964, which is 4% lower than a year earlier.
The International Energy Agency's October report puts 2026 demand 2.6 million barrels a day lower and says a 2027 recovery of 2 million will leave demand about 620,000 barrels a day below 2025.
Update: Canada's CPI rose to 3.1% in September, UK unemployment was 4.7% and UK CPI 3.5%, the flash PMIs put the UK composite at 53.1 and the euro area at 51.9, and Japan's national CPI rose 2.1%.
Update: Statistics Canada reported on 9 October that employment fell 68,000 in September and the unemployment rate rose to 6.5%.
Statistics Canada said real GDP was essentially unchanged in July. Construction rose for a fourth month, manufacturing fell 0.9% and retail trade 1.0%.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman decided on 4 October to keep September's required production for November. The IEA says OPEC+ output was 33.11 million barrels a day in August.
Statistics Canada said sales fell in eight of nine subsectors in July, close to its earlier advance estimate of a 0.8% drop. An early reading points to a 1.3% rebound in August.
Update: on 24 September Statistics Canada reported retail sales fell 0.7% to $73.7 billion in July, close to its 0.8% advance estimate.
Update: the week's releases are out, from the flash PMIs to the SNB, Norges Bank and Riksbank decisions, Australian jobs and Canadian retail sales, and US PCE inflation and GDP followed on 30 September.
Canada's inflation holds at 3.0% — but prices excluding gasoline rose just 2.4%. The gap is the energy problem the BoC named in its deliberations. Here is what it means for the loonie.
Brent has traded above $100 a barrel since early September as Hormuz shipping dwindles. Here is what triple-digit oil does to the commodity currencies, the importers and the inflation picture.
Fuel prices are pushing inflation up across the UK, the US and Canada — and the central banks are answering differently. Here is the shock's anatomy, its fingerprints in the data, and what it means for currencies.
The BoC held at 2.25% in September, citing fuel prices and US tariffs — the two forces pulling Canada's economy in opposite directions. Here is the trade-off and what it means for the loonie.
Oil prices feed inflation, inflation feeds central banks, and central banks feed currencies — the chain runs from Brent to every pair on the board. Here is the full transmission, with the current cycle as the case study.
Commercial crude stocks fell 0.6 million barrels to 423.4 million, 1% above the five-year average, the Energy Information Administration said, while total petroleum inventories rose 2.6 million barrels.
Canada's national home sales edged down for a fourth straight month of little change, CREA said on 15 September, while new listings jumped 3.3% and prices stayed flat.
USD/CAD has two masters: the oil price and the interest-rate gap between the Fed and the Bank of Canada. Here is how each channel works, which one leads, and how to read the tug-of-war.
USD/CAD answers to two masters: the oil price and the interest-rate gap between the Fed and the Bank of Canada. Here is how the pair works, when each master dominates, and how to build a plan around it.
The summary of the Governing Council's discussions before its 2 September hold, published on 16 September, shows members worried that high gasoline and diesel prices could keep inflation above target for longer.
Sales slipped to $78.7 billion as chemical and food manufacturers sold less, while inventories and unfilled orders reached record highs and capacity use dropped to 80.7%.
Gasoline prices were still 22.8% higher than a year earlier, but that was less than July's 25.7%. Rent and travel tours rose faster.
The International Energy Agency's September report says global inventories fell by a further 95 million barrels in August, taking draws since February to 507 million barrels.
Employment fell 0.2% in August 2026 and the unemployment rate held at 6.4%, while average hourly wages rose 2.0% from a year earlier, the slowest pace since November 2017.
Real GDP rose 0.8% in Q2 2026, or 3.3% annualized, Statistics Canada said on 28 August, beating the Bank of Canada's forecast as car exports recovered.
Brent has held above $100 a barrel since 3 September. Tanker traffic through Hormuz has fallen sharply amid US–Iran strikes, and Houthi forces have seized a Red Sea port.
The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged on 2 September, pointing to uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and a breakdown in trade talks with the United States.
Crude oil links energy markets to currencies through trade, inflation and interest rates. How that works for the Canadian dollar, and why the link isn't fixed.
Why the currencies of big commodity exporters move with iron ore, dairy and oil prices, what each country actually exports, and when the link weakens.
