ZEW sentiment edges up to +34.7 as experts judge Germany's current situation 14 points less negative

ZEW, the Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim, published its September 2026 survey on Tuesday 15 September. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany rose 0.5 points to +34.7. Experts' assessment of the current economic situation improved by 14.0 points, but at −47.1 it remains deeply negative.

The September figures

Germany:

• Economic sentiment (expectations for the next six months): +34.7, up from +34.2 in August
• Current situation: −47.1, up from −61.1

Euro area:

• Economic sentiment: +25.8, down 5.6 points from +31.4
• Current situation: −13.9, up 7.6 points from −21.5

The August values are the September figures minus the changes ZEW reports.

How to read a ZEW balance

Each figure is a balance of answers from the ZEW Financial Market Survey. For expectations, it is the share of financial market experts who expect the economy to improve over the next six months minus the share who expect it to worsen. For the current situation, it is the share who judge the situation good minus the share who judge it bad.

A positive expectations balance therefore means more respondents expect things to get better than worse. It does not measure how fast the economy is growing, and a reading of +34.7 alongside a current situation of −47.1 describes a weak starting point from which most experts expect some improvement.

What ZEW's president said

ZEW President Achim Wambach described sentiment as stable and said experts "are cautiously optimistic about a recovery of the economy." In his assessment, growth is still being driven by fiscal measures and is supported by export momentum.

He called the risks considerable, naming persistently high energy prices resulting from the continuing war in Iran, and additional uncertainty caused by hybrid attacks.

Sector readings

The release also reports balances for individual sectors in Germany:

• Banks: up 8.2 points to +52.9
• Insurance: up 12.1 points to +46.4
• Steel and metal manufacturing: −16.7
• Automotive: −22.6

Financial sectors are the most positive, while two of Germany's large industrial sectors remain negative.

The euro area background

The survey comes after several euro area releases that shape the outlook experts were asked about:

• Growth: euro area GDP rose 0.6% in the second quarter, with net exports adding 0.9 percentage points (report)
• Inflation: 3.3% in August, with energy prices 14.3% higher than a year earlier (report)
• Interest rates: the European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.50% on 10 September (report)
• Energy: Brent crude has traded above $100 a barrel this month (report)

Expectations for the euro area as a whole fell in September even as the assessment of its current situation improved, so German and euro area sentiment moved in different directions this month.

What it means for EUR/USD and the Germany 40

ZEW publishes in the middle of the month, before most official data for the same month, which makes it one of the earliest readings of German sentiment. Survey indicators such as ZEW and the purchasing managers' indexes (PMI explained) usually matter most for the euro when they change expectations for ECB policy (how interest rate decisions move currencies).

This week the larger scheduled event for EUR/USD is the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday 16 September (what traders are watching). Live prices: EUR/USD and the Germany 40 index. Release times in your time zone are on the economic calendar, and the market sessions page shows which trading centres are open.