ECB account of September meeting: the rise to a 2.50% deposit rate was robust across scenarios

The European Central Bank published the account of its monetary policy meeting of 9–10 September 2026, held in Berlin, on 8 October. The account summarises the Governing Council's discussion, including the financial market developments and the policy options it considered.

What the account says about the rate rise

The account describes the increase in the deposit facility rate to 2.50% as "a robust decision across a wide range of scenarios". It says the Governing Council's projections indicated that inflation was set to remain well above target for an extended period.

The account says that while measures of underlying inflation had shown little change so far, the full inflationary impact of the energy shock had yet to play out. The account therefore links the decision to the energy shock, which it says has not yet fed fully into prices.

Reading it

The account is useful for understanding how the Council weighed the decision. The phrase "across a wide range of scenarios" suggests the decision was judged against several assumptions about the economy, not only the central forecast.

The euro area's annual inflation rate reached 3.8% in September, which is consistent with the account's view of the energy shock. The next ECB decision is on 29 October. For the rate decision itself, see the ECB's September report. Live prices: EUR/USD.