Euro area inflation jumps to 3.8% in September as energy prices rise 18.8% from a year earlier

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 3.8% in September 2026, up from 3.2% in August, according to Eurostat's flash estimate published on 2 October. Prices rose an estimated 0.6% on the month. The European Central Bank raised its rates on 10 September, when Eurostat's August flash estimate was 3.3% (report); the figure was later confirmed at 3.2% (report).

The components

• Energy: 18.8% (August: 14.3%), up an estimated 3.9% on the month
• Services: 3.2% (August: 3.0%)
• Food, alcohol and tobacco: 1.4% (August: 1.1%)
• Non-energy industrial goods: 1.1% (August: 1.2%)
• All items excluding energy: 2.3% (August: 2.1%)
• Core, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco: 2.5% (August: 2.4%)

Energy accounts for most of the jump, but the other measures also edged up, so the increase is not only an energy effect.

By country

Eurostat's estimates for the largest economies were Germany 3.3%, France 3.4%, Italy 4.1% and Spain 5.0%. The highest rate was in Lithuania, 6.1%, and the lowest in Latvia, 2.9%. The euro area has included Bulgaria since January 2026, and the figures cover 21 countries.

What it means for the ECB and the euro

The ECB's staff projections in September had headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, with the deposit rate now at 2.50%. This reading is above the August level the projections were built on. The Governing Council meets on 28–29 October, with the decision on 29 October, a day after the Federal Reserve (report). The eurozone's flash composite PMI rose to 53.1 in September (report). For how this feeds into the currency, see how interest rate decisions move currencies. Live prices: EUR/USD.

What happens next

The full September data, which can revise the flash figures, are published on 16 October. The October flash estimate follows on 4 November.