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Flash PMIs for October: UK composite 53.1, euro area 51.9
Update: S&P Global's flash UK composite PMI rose to 53.1 in October, while the euro area composite fell to 51.9. The US flash is not covered in this update.
Japan's national CPI rose 2.1% in September; core-core at 2.4%
Update: Japan's national CPI rose 2.1% on the year in September. Core inflation, excluding fresh food, was 2.1%, and core-core, excluding fresh food and energy, was 2.4%.
UK inflation on 21 October: September CPI came in at 3.5%
Update: the ONS put UK CPI inflation at 3.5% in September, up from 3.1% in August. Core inflation rose to 2.8% and services inflation to 3.7%.
US housing starts fell to 1.221 million in September; permits 1.40 million
Update: the Census Bureau reported housing starts of 1,221,000 at an annual rate in September, down 5.2% from August, with building permits at 1,400,000.
ZEW expectations for Germany fell 6.6 points to 28.1 in October
Update: ZEW's economic expectations indicator for Germany fell 6.6 points to 28.1 in October, from 34.7 in September, the ZEW reported on 20 October.
UK unemployment falls to 4.7% in June to August; vacancies at 691,000
Update: the ONS puts UK unemployment at 4.7% for June to August, down 0.1 points on the quarter and the year. Vacancies fell to 691,000 in July to September, an early estimate.
US industrial production rises 0.7% in September, with utilities up 3.5% and manufacturing 0.3%
The Federal Reserve said industrial output rose 0.7% in September after a 0.1% gain in August. Output grew at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter, and motor vehicle output fell 3.0%.
New York factory activity jumps to 25.5 in October, its highest level in nearly five years
The New York Fed's Empire State survey shows the general business conditions index up 18 points. New orders and shipments rose, and prices paid remain elevated.
Philadelphia Fed factory index falls to 20.9 in October, still positive but down from 37.8
The Philadelphia Fed's Third District survey shows the general activity index down for a second month. New orders and shipments also fell, though they remain positive.
German industrial output rises 2.0% in August as construction jumps 9.3%
Destatis says production rose 2.0% on July, led by construction, while carmakers' output fell 5.4%. July's decline was revised to 1.2%.
German manufacturing orders fall 10.6% in August on the month, in Destatis's provisional figures
Destatis says real new orders in manufacturing dropped 10.6% on July after seasonal and calendar adjustment. The figures are provisional and come a day before its industrial production report.
Germany confirms September inflation at 3.3%, with energy prices up 14.9% on the year
Destatis's final figures match its 30 September estimate: consumer prices 3.3% higher than a year earlier and 0.6% higher on the month. Core inflation was 2.4%.
China's consumer prices rise 0.9% in September as gasoline costs climb 16.6% on the year
The National Bureau of Statistics said consumer inflation edged up from 0.8% in August. Food prices fell 1.7%, while energy and industrial goods pushed the index higher.
China's producer prices rise 5.0% in September, up 1.2 points from August
The NBS said factory-gate prices rose 5.0% on the year in September, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points from August. The producer price index is a measure of costs at the factory gate.
US consumer prices rise 3.7% on the year in September as gasoline jumps 9.1% in a month
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the all-items index rose 0.6% in September, lifting the 12-month rate to 3.7% from 3.4%. Core inflation was 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year.
China's exports rise 29.6% in September to 3.03 trillion yuan, and imports grow 24.6%
Customs figures reported by Xinhua show exports and imports both growing strongly in September, with total goods trade crossing 5 trillion yuan for the first time.
Fed minutes: all 12 voters backed the September increase, and most participants expect another by year-end
The minutes of the 15–16 September meeting, released on 7 October, show that the 25-basis-point increase to 3.75%–4.00% was unanimous and that most participants expect another increase by the end of the year.
Euro area industrial production falls 0.5% in August and is 1.1% lower than a year earlier
Eurostat's first estimate shows output down in intermediate goods and non-durable consumer goods, while capital goods rose 0.4%. Belgium recorded the largest monthly fall, at 5.1%.
Canada loses 68,000 jobs in September as unemployment rises to 6.5% and participation falls to 64.8%
Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey shows employment down 0.3% after a 42,000 fall in August. The employment rate fell to 60.6%, its second monthly decline, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.5%.
Euro area goods trade swings to a €16.1 billion deficit in August as imports jump 16.7%
Eurostat's first estimate shows exports up 9.9% on the year and imports up 16.7%, reversing July's €10.7 billion surplus. Machinery and vehicles drove the swing.
US retail sales rise 0.8% in September to $745.0 billion, and the August figures are revised
The Census Bureau's advance estimate puts sales at retailers and restaurants 6.3% higher than a year earlier. Its 28 September annual revision also changed earlier levels, so August is now $739.3 billion.
Euro area inflation confirmed at 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August
Eurostat's final September figure matches the flash estimate: the annual rate is 3.8%, up from 3.2% in August and 2.2% a year earlier. EU inflation was also 3.8%.
China's GDP grows 4.5% in the third quarter, faster than the 4.3% of the second, as industry picks up
The National Bureau of Statistics said growth picked up in the third quarter, with September industrial output up 5.5%. Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in the first nine months, and the bureau said domestic demand remains insufficient.
French consumer prices rise 3.1% on the year in September, final figure up from 3.0%
INSEE's final results raise its provisional 3.0% estimate to 3.1%, with core inflation, services and food all accelerating and energy rising again.
Canadian manufacturing sales rise 1.5% in August as primary metals hit a record
Statistics Canada's full August report puts manufacturing sales at $79.9 billion, with primary metal sales at a record and transportation equipment down 2.6%. Volumes were flat.
Housing starts in Canadian centres of 10,000 people or more fall 11% on the year in September
CMHC recorded 19,984 starts in September against 22,375 a year earlier. Starts for January to September total 170,964, which is 4% lower than a year earlier.
US federal deficit reaches $1.99 trillion in fiscal 2026, up from $1.78 trillion a year earlier
The Treasury's September statement closes fiscal 2026 with a deficit of $1.992 trillion, up from $1.775 trillion in fiscal 2025, which equals a 12% increase.
IEA sees 2026 oil demand down 2.6 million barrels a day, with only a partial 2027 recovery
The International Energy Agency's October report puts 2026 demand 2.6 million barrels a day lower and says a 2027 recovery of 2 million will leave demand about 620,000 barrels a day below 2025.
US 10-year Treasury yield falls to 5.09% by 16 October from 5.31% on 5 October
Treasury's daily par yield curve shows the 10-year yield down 22 basis points since 5 October, and the 2-year yield down 10 basis points to 4.74%. The data do not explain the move.
Norway's consumer prices rise 3.4% on the year in September; core inflation is 3.0%
Statistics Norway's September figures show headline inflation at 3.4% and CPI-ATE, the measure Norges Bank uses to judge underlying inflation, at 3.0%.
ECB account of September meeting: the rise to a 2.50% deposit rate was robust across scenarios
The Governing Council's account of its 9–10 September meeting, published on 8 October, describes the increase to a 2.50% deposit rate as a robust decision and says the full effect of the energy shock is still to come.
Week ahead, 19–23 October 2026: Canada and UK inflation, flash PMIs and Japan's national CPI
Update: Canada's CPI rose to 3.1% in September, UK unemployment was 4.7% and UK CPI 3.5%, the flash PMIs put the UK composite at 53.1 and the euro area at 51.9, and Japan's national CPI rose 2.1%.
US CPI on 14 October: what August's 3.4% inflation, a weak jobs report and 5% yields mean for the report
Update: September consumer prices rose 3.7% on the year, up from 3.4% in August, and core inflation was 2.6%. The Bureau published the figures on 14 October.
Week ahead, 12–16 October 2026: US CPI, the Beige Book, UK GDP, Australian jobs and the IMF meetings
Update: US CPI rose 3.7% on the year in September, Australia lost 39,300 jobs, UK GDP grew 0.1% in August, US retail sales rose 0.8%, and euro area inflation was confirmed at 3.8%.
Canada's September jobs report is due 9 October after August's loss of 42,000 jobs and 2.0% wage growth
Update: Statistics Canada reported on 9 October that employment fell 68,000 in September and the unemployment rate rose to 6.5%.
FOMC minutes on 7 October: what to look for in the record of the Fed's first rate increase since 2023
Update: the minutes were published on 7 October. All 12 voters backed the increase to 3.75%–4.00%, and most participants expect another by year-end.
Euro area unemployment holds at 6.4% in August as Austria's rate jumps to 6.7%
Eurostat estimates that 11.357 million people were out of work in the euro area in August, 26,000 more than in July, with the rate unchanged at 6.4% for a fourth month.
German inflation jumps to 3.3% in September as energy prices rise 14.9% on the year
Destatis's provisional figure is 0.4 point above August's 2.9% and the highest this year. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, held at 2.4%.
German unemployment falls to 2.99 million in September, but a weak autumn upturn lifts the adjusted count by 12,000
The Federal Employment Agency said the usual autumn pick-up began without momentum. The seasonally adjusted rate stayed at 6.4% and registered vacancies are 30,000 higher than a year ago.
French inflation jumps to 3.0% in September, its highest since January 2024, as energy prices rise 21.2%
INSEE's provisional estimate shows consumer prices 3.0% above a year earlier, up from 2.4% in August. On the harmonised measure used for euro area comparisons the rate is 3.4%.
