US CPI on 14 October: what August's 3.4% inflation, a weak jobs report and 5% yields mean for the report

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the consumer price index for September on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (12:30 UTC). It is the last major US inflation reading before the Federal Reserve's meeting on 27–28 October. The figures below are those known on 5 October.

Where August left things

• All items: +0.4% on the month, +3.4% on the year
• Core (excluding food and energy): +0.3% on the month, +2.4% on the year
• Energy: +2.1% on the month, +16.3% on the year
• Gasoline: +3.9% on the month, +27.4% on the year
• Shelter: +0.3% on the month, +3.0% on the year

Producer prices were 5.4% higher on the year, led by diesel (August report).

Two inflation gauges, two different core rates

The Bureau of Economic Analysis' PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure, was 3.4% in August, and its core measure was 3.0% on the year, against 2.4% for core CPI (report). The indexes weight shelter, health care and other items differently, so the committee reads both.

What has happened since

• Payrolls rose 29,000 in September, with the unemployment rate at 4.2% (report)
• The ISM manufacturing prices index jumped to 77.9 and the services prices index was 74.0 (report)
• The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.28% on 2 October (report)

What to look at

• Core CPI on the month. A reading near 0.3% keeps the annual rate drifting up
• Energy and gasoline. Whether the August jump continued in September
• Shelter, the largest part of core inflation
• The revisions and the Beige Book, published at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time the same day

Why the dollar watches it

CPI feeds directly into expectations for Fed policy, so it can move every dollar pair at once. The committee raised rates on 16 September and projected 4.1% at the end of 2026 (report); the FOMC minutes on 7 October show how it saw inflation at that meeting. CPI explained covers headline and core.

What happens next

Retail sales and producer prices follow on 15 October. October's CPI is on 10 November.