IEA sees 2026 oil demand down 2.6 million barrels a day, with only a partial 2027 recovery

The International Energy Agency's Oil Market Report for October 2026 forecasts global oil demand to fall by 2.6 million barrels a day on average in 2026. In the fourth quarter alone, demand is expected to be 2.5 million barrels a day lower than a year earlier. The agency attributes the drop to the conflict in the Middle East, which has limited product supply, raised fuel prices and weakened economic activity.

The 2027 outlook

The IEA expects a partial recovery of 2 million barrels a day in 2027. That still leaves demand in 2027 about 620,000 barrels a day below its 2025 level. The rebound is therefore not a return to earlier demand.

Supply

Output rose in September, driven by Gulf producers, according to the agency. The IEA's full supply and refinery projections are in the report itself, which we have linked below.

Reading it

The report describes demand being cut by high fuel prices and supply being limited by the conflict, so the balance depends on both. For currency traders, oil is a key input for the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone. The IEA's September report is the previous edition.

The next OPEC+ decision is due on 1 November. Brent has traded above $100 for much of September (report). For how oil moves the currency pairs, see oil and inflation. Live prices: Brent crude.