FOMC minutes on 7 October: what to look for in the record of the Fed's first rate increase since 2023

The Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of its 15–16 September meeting on Wednesday 7 October at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time (18:00 UTC). Minutes of regularly scheduled meetings come out three weeks after the policy decision. This is the record of the meeting at which the committee raised the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since July 2023 (report).

What the minutes are, and what they are not

The statement and projections on decision day are what the committee agreed to say. The minutes are the staff's account of the discussion: how participants assessed the economy, what risks they weighed and how many supported or doubted a given course. They are a record of the meeting of 15–16 September, so they will not reflect anything published since.

What the committee decided

The vote was 12–0. The median projection put the federal funds rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026, a quarter point above the middle of the new range, and kept it near 4% through 2027. The minutes may show how many participants saw that path as appropriate, and whether any wanted a different pace.

What to look for

• How broad the support for further increases is. The 2026 median implies one more increase, but a median hides the spread of views behind it
• How officials described the energy shock. Whether they saw it spreading into other prices or fading
• Their reading of the labour market. The statement said job gains had kept pace with workforce growth
• Balance sheet and market functioning. Treasury yields rose through September, and the Treasury expanded its long-end buybacks from 9 September (BIS review)

The data since the meeting

The minutes were written before several surprises:

• Payrolls rose 29,000 in September and July was revised to a loss of 10,000 (report)
• PCE inflation was 3.4% in August and core PCE 3.0% (report)
• The ISM manufacturing prices index jumped to 77.9 (report)
• The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.29% on 30 September (report)

Markets usually treat minutes as a lesser event than the decision, but they can move yields when they show more or less appetite for tightening than the statement implied.

What happens next

September's consumer prices are published on 14 October and the Beige Book at 2:00 p.m. the same day. The next FOMC meeting is on 27–28 October and, with no asterisk on the Fed's calendar, it has no new projections. The following one, on 8–9 December, does.