UK inflation is due on 21 October after August's 3.1%, with fuel prices and a divided Bank of England in focus

The Office for National Statistics publishes UK consumer price inflation for September on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at 7:00 a.m. UK time. It comes a day after the labour market figures and two weeks before the Bank of England's next decision on 5 November. The figures below are those known on 5 October.

Where August left things

• CPI inflation: 3.1%, up from 2.9% in July, with prices up 0.5% on the month
• Core CPI, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco: 2.6%
• Services inflation: 3.4%. Goods inflation: 2.7%
• Motor fuels: 23.0% more expensive than a year earlier, against 15.5% in July

Core and services inflation did not move, so the rise came from fuel and other energy-related prices (August report).

The Bank of England's position

On 17 September the Monetary Policy Committee voted 6–3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, with three members wanting an increase to 4%. It also voted unanimously to run its gilt holdings down to zero by 2034 (report).

What the surveys say

S&P Global's flash UK composite PMI fell to 51.7 in September from 52.5, a three-month low, and its chief business economist described "a worrying combination of disappointingly sluggish economic growth and intensifying inflationary pressures" (report).

What to look at

• Headline CPI against 3.1%, and fuel after August's jump
• Core and services inflation, which the Committee watches for persistence
• The labour market data of 20 October (7:00 a.m. UK time), including pay growth
• Monthly GDP for August, published on 15 October

Why sterling reacts

UK data matter for the pound through what they imply for Bank Rate. With three members already voting for an increase, a core reading above expectations strengthens that camp, while a softer one favours holding. Live prices: GBP/USD. How interest rate decisions move currencies explains the link, and the week's other releases are in the week-ahead calendar.

What happens next

The Bank of England decides on 5 November at 12:00 London time, with a new Monetary Policy Report.