China's GDP grows 4.5% in the third quarter, faster than the 4.3% of the second, as industry picks up

China's gross domestic product grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics said on 19 October, up from 4.3% in the second quarter. Over the first three quarters growth was 4.6%, with output of 107.11 trillion yuan, about $15.94 trillion. On a quarter-on-quarter basis GDP rose 1.2% in the third quarter.

The figures are as published by the NBS and reported by Xinhua and China Daily. FTC has not seen the NBS release itself.

September activity

• Industrial output: up 5.5% on the year in September, from 5.2% in August. For the first three quarters it rose 5.3%
• Retail sales: up 1.1% on the year in September, from 0.4% in August. For the first nine months they rose 1.1%
• Fixed-asset investment: down 7.2% in the first three quarters, the same decline as in the first eight months
• Urban unemployment: 5.2% in September, down from 5.3% in August

What the bureau said

The NBS said the external environment remains complex and volatile, and that domestic demand is still insufficient. It called for stronger efforts to expand domestic demand and improve supply.

Reading it

Industry is doing most of the work. September's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 (report), and industrial output picked up in the same month. Retail sales at 1.1% are still low, and investment is falling, which is the reason for the bureau's call for more domestic demand. The August figures showed the same pattern (report).

For the Australian dollar, China's growth is the main external factor. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September (report), so AUD/USD responds both to Chinese data and to Australian rates. For how China's price data bear on the picture, see China's August inflation, and for how PMIs are built, see PMIs explained. For the wider approach to growth data, see GDP explained for forex traders.