US 10-year Treasury yield falls to 5.09% by 16 October from 5.31% on 5 October

Treasury's daily par yield curve rates show the 10-year Treasury yield closing at 5.09% on 16 October 2026, down from 5.31% on 5 October. That is a fall of 22 basis points over eight trading days. The 2-year yield closed at 4.74% on 16 October, down from 4.84% on 5 October, and the 30-year yield at 5.43%, down from 5.66%.

The path

10-year yield, daily closes from Treasury's data:

• 5 October: 5.31%
• 6 October: 5.27%
• 7 October: 5.28%
• 8 October: 5.22%
• 9 October: 5.24%
• 13 October: 5.21%
• 14 October: 5.19%
• 15 October: 5.10%
• 16 October: 5.09%

The 2-year yield moved in the same direction over the period, from 4.84% to 4.74%. The 3-month bill yield rose from 4.22% to 4.26%, so the fall was concentrated in longer maturities.

Reading it

The data show what happened, not why. The biggest single-day move came on 15 October, the day after the US consumer price index was published (CPI report). Treasury's data cannot tell us whether the move reflected lower expectations for policy, lower inflation expectations or something else, and we have not verified any explanation from a primary source.

The 10-year yield was 5.29% at the end of September (report), so the move since then has been a retreat from the highest level since 2002. For how yields move currencies, see bond yields and exchange rates. Live prices: EUR/USD.