US third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation due 29 October: what to look for

The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes its advance estimate of US third-quarter GDP, along with the personal income and outlays report for September, on 29 October 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure.

The last readings

The second-quarter GDP third estimate put growth at 2.2%, revised up from 1.5% in the second estimate, while first-quarter growth was 2.5% (GDP report). PCE inflation was 3.4% on the year in August, with core at 3.0% (PCE report).

What to watch

The GDP report will show how strongly consumers and business investment held up in the third quarter, and the September PCE figure will show whether the price measure the Fed targets is still rising. Both arrive in the same week as the Fed's decision, so traders will read them together.

Why it matters for the dollar

Stronger growth and higher inflation would support the Fed's view that another increase may be needed, as the September minutes indicated (FOMC minutes report). The Fed decides on 28 October. Live prices: EUR/USD.