Fed decision on 28 October: no new projections, with PCE inflation at 3.4% and hiring slowing

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its decision on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time, followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. The target range for the federal funds rate is 3.75%–4.00% after the increase of 16 September (report). The figures below are those known on 5 October.

No projections this time

The Fed publishes economic projections and the dot plot at four meetings a year, and October is not one of them. The September median put the rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026, a quarter point above the middle of the current range (dot plot explained). The next projections come on 9 December.

The data since September

• Jobs: payrolls rose 29,000 in September, July was revised to a loss of 10,000 and unemployment rose to 4.2% (report)
• Inflation: PCE prices were up 3.4% in August and core PCE 3.0% (report). The September CPI report, published on 14 October (preview), adds the latest consumer price reading
• Growth: second-quarter GDP was revised up to 2.2% (report), and the ISM manufacturing prices index jumped to 77.9 (report)
• Markets: the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.29% on 30 September, its highest since 2002 (report)

The minutes of the September meeting, on 7 October, show how the committee saw the outlook before this data.

What to look at on the day

• The decision and any dissent. September's vote was 12–0
• The statement's language on jobs and inflation, which changes one phrase at a time
• The press conference. Without projections, the Chair's answers carry the guidance
• The timing quirk. September's PCE inflation and third-quarter GDP arrive the next morning, 29 October at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time

What it means for the dollar

The dollar responds to the gap between what the Fed does and what markets expected, and to guidance on December. With weaker hiring and inflation at 3.4%, the committee's weighting of the two is the question. How interest rate decisions move currencies explains the mechanism. Live prices: EUR/USD.

What happens next

The Bank of Canada and the RBNZ also decide on 28 October, the ECB on 29 October and the Bank of Japan on 30 October (week ahead). The Fed meets again on 8–9 December.