Fed decision on 16 September: what currency traders are watching

The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee meets on 15 and 16 September 2026. The decision and policy statement are published on Wednesday 16 September at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time, which is 18:00 UTC, and the Chair's press conference follows half an hour later.

September is one of the four meetings each year at which the Fed also publishes its Summary of Economic Projections, including the "dot plot" showing where each official expects interest rates to be at the end of the next few years. Kevin Warsh has chaired the Fed since he was sworn in on 22 May 2026.

The data since the last meeting

The committee goes into this meeting with a mixed set of numbers:

• Consumer prices rose 3.4% in the year to August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, was 2.4%. Gasoline prices were 27.4% higher than a year earlier.
• Producer prices for final demand rose 0.4% in August and 5.4% over twelve months.
• Payrolls increased by 162,000 in August and the unemployment rate was 4.1%. But June and July were revised down to gains of 31,000 and 21,000.
• Wages: average hourly earnings were up 3.1% on the year.

What to watch when the statement lands

1. The decision itself, and whether any members dissent.
2. The statement's wording on inflation, especially how it treats energy prices versus core inflation.
3. The dot plot. Changes in the median projection for the end of 2026 and 2027 often move the dollar more than the decision.
4. The inflation and unemployment projections, which show how the committee reads the energy shock.
5. The press conference, where unscripted answers can reverse the first reaction.

How the release tends to trade

Around 18:00 UTC, liquidity in dollar pairs thins and spreads can widen sharply for a few seconds. Stop orders may fill away from their level, and many brokers raise margin requirements around major central bank events. The first move in EUR/USD, USD/JPY or gold is not always the lasting one: the projections and press conference often reshape it within the hour.

The same week brings decisions from the Bank of England on 17 September and the Bank of Japan on 17–18 September. Exact times in your time zone are on the economic calendar, and the dot plot explained covers how to read the projections.