'Lowest since May 2025', 'highest since January 2024': do record headlines make you trade or make you wait?
This week's data came with a lot of "since" headlines. On ECB reference rates the euro was at its lowest against the dollar since 16 May 2025 (report). French consumer price inflation of 3.0% is the highest since January 2024 (report), and the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.29% on 30 September, its highest since May 2002 (report).
A "since" line says how rare a level is, but not what happens next. Rare can mean a breakout that keeps going, or a stretched move that reverses. The comparison is also chosen by the writer: the same number can be "the highest since 2024" or "still below its 2023 peak" depending on the window, and different dates give different stories.
We have checked the comparisons in these articles against the source data, but the habit is worth discussing:
- Does a "highest/lowest since" headline make you want to trade, or make you wait?
- How do you check whether the comparison is meaningful, for example against a longer history?
- Do you prefer to ignore headlines and look at the chart and calendar, and what do you check first?
- Have you been caught by trading a "record" that was just the start of a bigger move, or the end of one?
How to read price action covers charts, and how to trade the news covers reactions to releases.
Please share your own approach and reasoning, not calls for others to copy. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.
Background: How to trade the news: a step-by-step strategy guide
News moves currency pairs faster than anything else in the market. Here is how to trade news releases with a plan, not a prayer — including the releases that matter, the risks around the release minute, and three strategies that respect both.
What is the best news to trade in forex?
The releases that consistently move currencies are US CPI, non-farm payrolls and Fed decisions for the dollar, CPI and Bank of England decisions for sterling, ECB decisions for the euro, and Bank of Japan decisions for the yen.
Should beginners trade the news?
Most beginners are better off reducing positions before high-impact releases and learning to trade the aftermath first. The release minute itself has widened spreads and fast reversals that punish inexperience.
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