UK jobs data on 15 September: unemployment and pay growth before the Bank of England

The Office for National Statistics publishes its next UK labour market figures at 7:00 a.m. UK time on Tuesday 15 September 2026, two days before the Bank of England announces its interest rate decision. Here is where the previous release, published on 18 August, left things.

The August release in numbers

For April to June 2026:

• Unemployment rate: 4.9%, up 0.2 percentage points on the year but down 0.1 points on the previous quarter
• Employment rate (ages 16 to 64): 75.1%
• Economic inactivity rate: 20.9%, largely unchanged

Other measures:

• Payrolled employees: 30.3 million in July (provisional), down 94,000 on the year
• Vacancies: 707,000 in May to July, down 6,000 on the quarter
• Regular pay growth: 3.5% a year; total pay including bonuses 4.1%
• By sector: regular pay grew 6.1% in the public sector and 2.8% in the private sector
• Real regular pay, adjusted for CPI inflation: up 0.7%

Handle the survey figures with care

The ONS continues to advise caution when drawing conclusions from short-term changes in the Labour Force Survey and suggests focusing on longer-term movements. It also reported an operational issue in May 2026 that had a noticeable effect on estimates of average hours. Payroll data from tax records and the vacancies survey offer a cross-check.

Why it matters for the Bank of England

In July, the Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75%, with three of its nine members voting to raise it to 4% (preview). Private sector regular pay growth is one of the measures the MPC watches most closely for domestic inflation pressure. A further slowdown would weaken the case for a rise; a pickup would strengthen it.

The other recent data: UK inflation was 2.9% in July (report) and GDP grew 0.4% in July (report).

Traders in GBP/USD and EUR/GBP are likely to look at private sector pay and the unemployment rate first.