Bank of England preview: three policymakers already voted for a hike in July

Update, 18 September: the decision is out. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6–3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, with three members wanting a rise to 4%, and voted unanimously to run its gilt holdings down to zero by the end of 2034 (full report).

Update, 17 September: the last inflation figures before the decision are out. CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in August from 2.9%, while core inflation held at 2.6% (report).

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee announces its next decision on Thursday 17 September 2026. It is the most finely balanced of this week's central bank meetings, because the committee was already split at its previous one.

A 6–3 vote in July

In July the committee kept Bank Rate at 3.75%. Six members voted to hold: Governor Andrew Bailey, Sarah Breeden, Swati Dhingra, Clare Lombardelli, Dave Ramsden and Alan Taylor. Three members, Megan Greene, Catherine L Mann and Huw Pill, preferred a quarter-point increase to 4%.

The minutes set out both sides of the argument:

• The majority said financial conditions had tightened materially compared with before the Middle East conflict, which was already restraining the economy. They saw clear signs of underlying disinflation and little evidence so far of second-round effects on wages and prices.
• The three dissenters worried that second-round effects could be material, and saw a rate rise as sensible risk management given a prolonged energy shock and inflation that has been above target for five years.

What has changed since

The Office for National Statistics reported that consumer price inflation rose to 2.9% in July, from 2.6% in June. The biggest upward push came from household energy: gas prices rose 14.7% after Ofgem's price cap increase in July. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, held at 2.6%, and services inflation was 3.4%.

Headline inflation moving up while core inflation holds steady is exactly the pattern the committee disagreed about in July: an energy shock that may fade, or the start of broader price pressure.

What to watch on 17 September

1. The vote split. Any shift from 6–3, in either direction, is likely to matter more for GBP/USD than a hold on its own.
2. The minutes' description of second-round effects in wages and services prices.
3. The committee's guidance on how quickly it expects energy-driven inflation to pass.

The decision is published at 12:00 UK time along with the minutes. See the economic calendar for the time where you are.