UK GDP growth is revised up to 0.5% for the second quarter as household incomes recover

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published its quarterly national accounts for April to June 2026 on 30 September. UK gross domestic product grew 0.5% in the second quarter, revised up 0.1 percentage point from the first estimate, after an unrevised 0.6% in the first quarter. GDP for 2025 as a whole is now put at 1.2%, revised down by 0.1 point. The level of GDP in the second quarter is 2.0% above the fourth quarter of 2024, up from 1.9%.

The quarterly path

Real GDP growth, quarter on previous quarter:

• 2025: Q1 +0.6%, Q2 0.0%, Q3 +0.2%, Q4 0.0%
• 2026: Q1 +0.6%, Q2 +0.5%

By sector, services grew 0.6% in the second quarter, construction 0.8% and production fell 0.1%, revised down from no change. Real household consumption rose 0.3% and is 1.2% above a year earlier. GDP per head rose 0.5%, and nominal GDP rose 0.8%.

Household incomes and saving

• Real household disposable income per head: +1.0% after −0.8% in the first quarter
• Household saving ratio: 8.8%, up 0.2 point, driven by non-pension saving
• Net borrowing from the rest of the world: 2.8% of GDP, down from 2.9%

The ONS says this release is consistent with the Blue Book 2026 accounts, which are published on 30 October and include revisions up to the second quarter of 2026 as a result of methodological changes and new VAT turnover data. Early GDP estimates are revised; the ONS notes the mean revision between the first estimate and the final one three years later is +0.08 point.

What it means for sterling

The data are about April to June, before the energy shock that dominates the Bank of England's thinking now. The Bank held Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 6–3 vote on 17 September, with three members wanting an increase, and CPI inflation was 3.1% in August (report). Monthly GDP grew 0.4% in July (report). The Bank's next decision is on 5 November. How to trade GBP/USD covers what moves the pair. Live prices: GBP/USD.