UK GDP was revised up to 0.5% while mortgage approvals fell to 54,900. How do you weigh sterling's growth against the housing slowdown?

The ONS revised UK second-quarter GDP growth up to 0.5% from 0.4%, after 0.6% in the first quarter. Real household disposable income per head rose 1.0% after falling 0.8%, and the saving ratio rose to 8.8% (full report). Monthly GDP grew 0.4% in July (report).

The Bank of England's Money and Credit release showed the other side: approvals for house purchase fell to 54,900 in August, below their six-month average of about 60,100, and the effective rate on newly drawn mortgages rose to 4.60% from 4.45% in July. Consumer credit growth rose to 9.6% a year (report).

UK GDP was revised up to 0.5% while mortgage approvals fell to 54,900. How do you weigh sterling's growth against the housing slowdown? — moving average crossover diagram
A fast moving average crossing a slower one

The Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 6–3 vote on 17 September, with three members wanting an increase (report), and CPI inflation was 3.1% in August. The next decision is on 5 November.

UK GDP was revised up to 0.5% while mortgage approvals fell to 54,900. How do you weigh sterling's growth against the housing slowdown? — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

Growth data look back at April to June; mortgage and credit data look at what is happening now. We would like to hear how you combine them:

  • Which do you give more weight to for GBP/USD: backward-looking GDP or forward-looking credit and housing data?
  • Do you think of the housing market as a leading indicator for UK growth, or a lagging one?
  • How do you treat a GDP revision of 0.1 point: noise, or a signal?
  • Which UK release do you mark first on your calendar before the Bank decides?

Please share your own approach and reasoning, not calls for others to copy. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.

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