UK jobs data on 15 September, then the Bank of England: your plans for sterling
UK labour market figures come out on Tuesday 15 September, two days before the Bank of England's decision on Thursday 17 September. In July, three of the nine Monetary Policy Committee members voted to raise Bank Rate to 4%.
The previous labour market release put unemployment at 4.9% for April to June, with regular pay growth of 3.5%, and UK GDP grew 0.4% in July.
- Does the jobs data change what you expect from the vote?
- Which pair do you use for sterling news: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP or something else?
- How do you handle two high-impact UK events in one week?
Background: UK labour market preview, UK GDP in July and the Bank of England preview.
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The jobs data is now out, so here's where the numbers stand for anyone planning around sterling.
- Labour market (15 September): unemployment was steady at 4.9%, with private sector pay growth edging up to 2.9% (report).
- Inflation: UK CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in August, with fuel prices a major driver (report).
- Bank of England (17 September): in July, three of the nine members voted to raise Bank Rate to 4%.
That combination is why the vote split is getting so much attention. Steady unemployment and higher inflation give the members who voted for an increase more to point to, while modest pay growth gives the others reason to wait.
For how rate decisions feed through to currencies, see how interest rate decisions move currencies. Members, did the inflation number change your plan for the decision?
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