Fuel is pushing inflation up in the UK, US and Canada. Which currencies are you watching because of it?
Energy prices are showing up in inflation figures across the board. UK inflation rose to 3.1% in August with motor fuels 23% more expensive than a year earlier, US consumer prices rose 3.4% (report), and Canada's inflation held at 3.0% while prices excluding gasoline rose 2.4% (report). Brent crude has traded above $100 a barrel since 3 September (report).
Oil exporters' currencies are often linked to energy prices (commodity currencies), while oil importers can face a bigger import bill.
Questions for the community:
- Do you trade CAD or NOK with oil prices in mind, and has that relationship held this month?
- Are you watching importers such as JPY or EUR differently?
- Which inflation release do you find most useful for the energy story: headline, core, or producer prices?
Share your reasoning and sources. Posts promising a direction will be removed.
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A way to organise the discussion: split currencies by whether their country mainly exports or imports energy.
- Exporters (CAD, NOK): higher oil prices can improve their trade balances and support the currency, though interest rate expectations often matter more day to day.
- Importers (JPY, EUR, INR and others): higher fuel costs widen the import bill and can weigh on growth, while also pushing up inflation, which puts central banks in a difficult position.
- The US dollar: the US is a large producer, so the effect is mixed and usually runs through the Fed's response to inflation.
On the data side, producer prices can show where consumer inflation is heading. UK factory gate inflation rose to 3.7% in August, with refined petroleum prices up 49% (report), while UK consumer inflation was 3.1% (report).
Background: trade balance and current account and commodity currencies.
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