Oil above $100: how are CAD and NOK reacting for you?
Brent crude traded above $100 a barrel in early September as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz dwindled. For the currencies of oil exporters that should in theory be supportive, but the link is rarely that simple.
Tell us what you're seeing:
- Has USD/CAD tracked oil as closely as the textbooks suggest?
- Is the Norwegian krone responding more to oil or to Norges Bank?
- Are higher fuel costs weighing on the currencies of oil importers you trade?
The guides to oil and the Canadian dollar and commodity currencies explain the relationships, and our news report covers Brent above $100.
Background: Oil and currencies: why crude prices move the Canadian dollar
Crude oil links energy markets to currencies through trade, inflation and interest rates. How that works for the Canadian dollar, and why the link isn't fixed.
Why does oil affect the Canadian dollar?
Crude oil is one of Canada's largest exports. Higher prices increase export earnings and demand for Canadian dollars, and they also affect inflation and interest rate expectations.
Does USD/CAD go down when oil goes up?
Often, because a stronger Canadian dollar pushes USD/CAD lower. But the relationship isn't fixed: interest rates, trade relations and risk sentiment can outweigh oil.
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An update since the thread started, and a suggestion for checking the relationship yourself.
Oil: Brent has stayed above $100 a barrel since early September (report), while the IEA's September report expects world demand to fall in 2026 (summary).
Canada: inflation held at 3.0% in August (report), and the Bank of Canada's deliberations mention fuel prices among the reasons it kept its rate at 2.25%.
Norway: core inflation rose to 3.0% in August (report), ahead of the Norges Bank decision on 24 September.
A simple check: compare the daily percentage change in Brent with the change in USD/CAD over the last 20 trading days. If the relationship has weakened, it's often because interest rate expectations, such as the Fed's increase this week, are doing more of the work.
Background: oil prices and the Canadian dollar and commodity currencies.
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