Euro area inflation jumped to 3.8% with energy up 18.8%. Does the ECB have to act again, and how do you trade the wait?

Eurostat's flash estimate put euro area inflation at 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August. Energy was 18.8% higher than a year earlier (August: 14.3%), services inflation was 3.2% and core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, was 2.5%, up from 2.4% (full report). The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.50% on 10 September and its staff then expected inflation to average 3.0% in 2026 (report).

The Governing Council meets on 28–29 October, with the decision on 29 October at 14:15 Frankfurt time. Between now and then come the full September data on 16 October and the October flash PMIs on 23 October.

Questions for members who trade the euro:

• Does an inflation jump driven mostly by energy change what you expect from the ECB, or do you wait for core and services to move?
• How do you treat the weeks between meetings: do you position early, wait for the data in the middle, or stay out until the decision?
• Which matters more for EUR/USD at the moment, the ECB's path or the Fed's? The Fed decides a day earlier, on 28 October
• Do you watch the individual country readings, such as Germany at 3.3%, France at 3.4%, Italy at 4.1% and Spain at 5.0%?

Please share your own approach and reasoning, not predictions sold as certainties. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.