Australia's jobless rate has risen two months running right before the RBA meets. How do you position into that?
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on 24 September that unemployment rose to 4.6% in August, up from 4.5% in July and 4.4% in June, with all of the month's net job gain in part-time work while full-time employment fell (full report). The Reserve Bank of Australia decides on 29 September with the cash rate at 4.35% (preview).
In August the RBA said it would raise the cash rate further only if upside risks to inflation materialise, framing its bias around prices rather than jobs. Two straight months of a softening labour market pull the other way, but the RBA's own August CPI figures don't land until the day after the decision, on 30 September. So the Board has to decide with a rate path guided by inflation risk and a jobs market that's quietly getting worse.
Questions for members trading AUD:
- Does a softening labour market change your read on the RBA's 29 September decision, given its guidance was framed around inflation rather than jobs?
- The ABS flagged that a methodology change (removing an old seasonal adjustment factor) could be distorting the August reading. Does that kind of caveat make you trust a release less, or do you take the headline number at face value regardless?
- How do you position AUD/USD ahead of a decision where the outcome doesn't feel obvious either way?
- Do you wait for the press conference, or trade the statement the moment it's out?
Please share your own approach and reasoning, not predictions sold as certainties. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.
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