The BIS says the dollar gave back most of its July gains in August. How do you tell a dollar trend from a bounce?

The Bank for International Settlements' September Quarterly Review says the US dollar appreciated against most major advanced-economy currencies until the end of July as markets priced faster tightening, then shed most of those gains in August. It also says the yen recovered sharply after the joint intervention on 31 July, and that the Treasury's buyback announcement on 19 August pushed the dollar lower for longer than it moved yields (full report).

Since then the Federal Reserve has raised rates (report). That makes a good moment to ask a plain question: how do you decide whether a move in the dollar is a trend or just a bounce?

We would like to hear:

• what you use to separate the two: higher-timeframe structure, rate differentials, the Dollar Index, positioning data, or something else
• how many days or weeks of movement you need before you call it a trend
• how you avoid chasing a sharp week that reverses the next
• what your read on the dollar was at the end of July and at the end of August, and what you would do differently now

The US Dollar Index explained covers the six currencies behind the index and their weights, which matters when one currency, like the yen, drives a move on its own.

Please share your reasoning, not calls for others to copy. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.