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What central bank projections are, and how to read them

Central banks publish their own projections for growth, inflation and interest rates, with the assumptions behind them. Here is what the numbers are, when they come, and how to read them as the institution's own view.

By FTC Editorial TeamPublished 1 min read

A central bank projection is the institution's own estimate of where growth, inflation and interest rates are heading, based on the assumptions it sets out. The Federal Reserve publishes the median and individual projections in its Summary of Economic Projections, dated 16 September 2026 for the latest one (Federal Reserve). The ECB publishes staff projections with its monetary policy decisions, as its September 2026 release shows (ECB). The Bank of Canada publishes projections in its Monetary Policy Report (Bank of Canada).

What central bank projections are, and how to read them — central bank rate path diagram
A central bank's policy rate path across recent meetings

Three things to check

  1. Who wrote it. A projection is the institution's own view, not a neutral fact, and it can change at the next publication.
  2. What it assumes. Each projection depends on the policy and market assumptions stated next to it.
  3. When it was published. A September projection and an October projection can differ for reasons the bank explains in its text.
What central bank projections are, and how to read them — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

The three official projections published this week are in Fed's September projections: rate at 4.1% at end-2026, ECB staff see inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.1% in 2028 and Bank of Canada sees inflation above 3% through much of 2027. For the guidance central banks give about future decisions, see What is forward guidance?.

What central bank projections are, and how to read them — candlestick anatomy diagram
The parts of a candlestick: wick, body, open and close

Sources

  1. Federal Reserve: Economic projections, 16 September 2026
  2. European Central Bank: Staff macroeconomic projections, September 2026
  3. Bank of Canada: Monetary Policy Report, October 2026

Common questions

Are central bank projections a forecast from FTC?

No. They are published by each central bank as its own view, with the assumptions it sets out, and FTC does not add a forecast.

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This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Trading forex and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money. Read the risk warning. Spotted an error? Tell the editors.

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