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ECB staff see inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.1% in 2028

The ECB's September 2026 staff projections put annual inflation at 3.0% in 2026, falling to 2.1% in 2028. They put GDP growth at 0.9% in 2026, rising to 1.5% in 2028.

By FTC Editorial TeamPublished 1 min read

The European Central Bank published its staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area on 10 September 2026, the day of its September monetary policy decision. The bank states that annual inflation is projected at 3.0% in 2026, falling to 2.1% in 2028. Real GDP growth is projected at 0.9% in 2026, rising to 1.5% in 2028 (ECB, staff macroeconomic projections, September 2026).

ECB staff see inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.1% in 2028 — central bank rate path diagram
A central bank's policy rate path across recent meetings

The projections, as published

  • Annual inflation, 2026: 3.0%
  • Annual inflation, 2028: 2.1%
  • Real GDP growth, 2026: 0.9%
  • Real GDP growth, 2028: 1.5%
ECB staff see inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.1% in 2028 — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

These are the bank's staff projections, not FTC's view. The ECB's decision that followed the October meeting is in ECB keeps its deposit rate at 2.50% as energy prices rise.

ECB staff see inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.1% in 2028 — candlestick anatomy diagram
The parts of a candlestick: wick, body, open and close

Sources

  1. European Central Bank: Staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, September 2026

Common questions

What does the ECB project for euro area inflation in 2026?

3.0% annual inflation in 2026, falling to 2.1% in 2028, according to the ECB's September 2026 staff projections.

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