Fed's September projections: rate at 4.1% at end-2026
The median Federal Open Market Committee projection for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 is 4.1%, and for PCE inflation in 2026 is 3.7%. These are the committee's own projections, published 16 September 2026.
The Federal Reserve published its Summary of Economic Projections on 16 September 2026. The table gives each committee member's projections, and the median values are the ones quoted here (Federal Reserve, FOMC projections, 16 September 2026).
The median projections, as published
- Federal funds rate, end of 2026: 4.1%
- Federal funds rate, end of 2027: 4.1%
- PCE inflation, 2026: 3.7%
- Unemployment rate, 2026: 4.1%
These are the committee's own projections. FTC adds no forecast of its own. The Committee's decision on 28 October is in Fed holds at 3.75%–4.00%, with two votes for a hike, and the chart of individual projections is explained in the Fed's dot plot.
Sources
Common questions
What did the Fed's September 2026 projections say about the rate at the end of 2026?
The median projection for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 was 4.1%, according to the Federal Reserve's projections published on 16 September 2026.
Are these projections FTC's forecast?
No. They are the Federal Reserve's own projections, published as they were released.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Trading forex and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money. Read the risk warning. Spotted an error? Tell the editors.
Related reading
Comments
Log in to join the discussion. Comments follow the community guidelines.
Log in to commentLoading comments…