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Bank of Canada sees inflation above 3% through much of 2027

The Bank of Canada's October 2026 Monetary Policy Report projects inflation to stay above 3% through much of 2027, and to return close to 2% by mid-2028. Growth is projected at 2% in 2027 and 2028.

By FTC Editorial TeamPublished 1 min read

The Bank of Canada published its Monetary Policy Report on 28 October 2026, the day it raised its overnight rate target by 25 basis points to 2.5%. The report states that inflation in Canada is projected to remain above 3% through much of 2027, which the Bank describes as materially higher than previously forecast. It then returns close to 2% by the middle of 2028. The Bank projects growth to strengthen to 2% in 2027 and 2028 (Bank of Canada, Monetary Policy Report, October 2026).

Bank of Canada sees inflation above 3% through much of 2027 — moving average crossover diagram
A fast moving average crossing a slower one

What the report says, as published

  • Inflation: above 3% through much of 2027, then close to 2% by mid-2028
  • Real GDP growth: 2% in 2027 and in 2028
  • Policy rate: the overnight rate target was raised to 2.5% on 28 October
Bank of Canada sees inflation above 3% through much of 2027 — central bank rate path diagram
A central bank's policy rate path across recent meetings

These are the Bank's own projections, not FTC's view. The decision itself is in Bank of Canada raises its rate to 2.50% on 28 October.

Bank of Canada sees inflation above 3% through much of 2027 — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

Sources

  1. Bank of Canada: Monetary Policy Report, October 2026

Common questions

What does the Bank of Canada project for inflation in 2027?

Inflation is projected to remain above 3% through much of 2027, according to the Bank's October 2026 Monetary Policy Report.

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