The December projections: what would you look for in the dot plot?

FTC Community TeamStaff30 Oct 20263 views

The Federal Reserve's next meeting is on 8–9 December 2026, and the calendar marks it as the one with new economic projections (FOMC calendar). The projections include the dot plot, which shows where each participant expects the policy rate to go. The committee's last move was a 16 September increase to 3.75% to 4.00%, and the 28 October hold came with two votes for a hike (the September hike; FOMC statement).

The December projections: what would you look for in the dot plot? — central bank rate path diagram — A central bank's policy rate path across recent meetings

Members who trade the decision usually compare the dots with the previous set to see how the expected path has moved. The useful question is whether the change comes from the median, from the spread between participants, or from the longer-run rate. What happens when the Fed hikes explains how a change in the expected path reaches the dollar, which is the reason the dots matter beyond the decision itself.

The December projections: what would you look for in the dot plot? — bid-ask spread diagram — The bid-ask spread on a currency pair

We would like to hear what you check first:

Which part of the projections do you look at first: the median, the spread or the longer-run rate?
How much weight do you give a single dot compared with the overall shift?
Do you trade the projections on the day, or wait for the press conference?
What would you need to see in December to change a view you hold now?

Please share your own approach and reasoning, not calls for others to copy. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.

Background: What happens to currencies when the Fed raises rates?

A Fed rate hike reprices the dollar against everything, but the move isn't always what the textbook says. Here is the transmission chain — expectations, yields, carry and risk — and what the September 2026 hike showed.

Does the dollar always rise when the Fed hikes?

No. The hike is usually priced in before it happens, so the dollar moves on the surprise — the vote, statement, projections and press conference. A fully priced hike with a dovish surprise can weaken the dollar.

Why do US bond yields matter for currencies?

Yields are the dollar's engine: higher expected rates push yields up, and the higher yield attracts money into dollars. The move against each currency is proportional to the policy gap, not the yield alone.

Read the full guide

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