What is a par yield curve, and why does Treasury publish it every day? Explain it simply
Treasury publishes its daily par yield curve rates for maturities from one month to 30 years. A par yield is the yield a bond would have if it were priced at face value, so the curve gives a clean comparison across maturities. On 16 October the 10-year par yield was 5.09% and the 2-year was 4.74% (yields report).
The curve matters because the difference between short and long yields tells you what investors expect for interest rates and inflation. A steep curve often means markets expect higher rates later, and a flat or inverted curve often means the opposite.
We would like the friendliest explanation in the community:
- How would you explain a par yield to someone who has only ever held a savings account?
- Why do you think the curve is useful for currency traders, if at all?
- What was the first source that helped you read a yield curve?
- Which maturity do you watch most, and why?
Bond yields and exchange rates gives the basic link to currencies.
Treasury's table lists maturities from one month to 30 years, so you can read the slope yourself. On 16 October the 3-month yield was 4.26% and the 30-year 5.43%. Which two maturities do you compare when you want a quick read on expectations?
Please keep replies friendly and practical. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.
Background: How interest rate decisions move currencies
Central bank decisions are the biggest scheduled events in forex. Why rates matter, why a hike can weaken a currency, and what to read beyond the decision.
Does a rate hike always strengthen a currency?
No. If the hike was fully expected, it is already in the price. The currency can even weaken if the central bank signals that it won't raise rates further.
What does hawkish mean?
Leaning towards higher interest rates to control inflation. A hawkish surprise usually supports the currency.
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