Do consumer inflation expectations surveys change your view of the dollar?
Two US surveys of inflation expectations came out in the last week. The New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations for August showed median expectations unchanged at 3.6% one year ahead, down 0.1 percentage point to 3.2% three years ahead and unchanged at 3.0% five years ahead (report). The University of Michigan's preliminary September survey put year-ahead expectations at 4.6% (report).
The two surveys ask different questions of different samples, which is one reason their numbers don't match.
We'd like to hear:
- whether you follow either survey, and which one you find more useful
- whether expectations data has ever changed a trade you were planning before a Fed decision
- how you weigh surveys against hard data such as the CPI report
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