Euro inflation was confirmed at 3.8%, but the trade balance swung to a €16.1bn deficit. Which matters more for EUR?

Eurostat's final figure confirmed euro area inflation at 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August (inflation report). The same week, its first trade estimate showed a €16.1 billion goods deficit in August, after a €10.7 billion surplus in July. Exports rose 9.9% on the year and imports 16.7% (trade report).

One points to the ECB, the other to the balance of payments. The inflation figure raises the question of whether the Governing Council will keep tightening, and the trade figure raises the question of whether the euro's external balance can keep supporting it.

We would like to hear which you think matters more:

• For the euro over the next month, do you weight the inflation picture or the trade balance more heavily?
• Does a single month's trade swing change your view, or do you wait for revisions?
• When inflation and the trade balance point in different directions, which do you let win?
• How does the ECB's own account of its September meeting shape your view? (ECB account)

The two figures also differ in reliability. The inflation figure is confirmed by Eurostat, while the trade figure is a first estimate that is often revised, sometimes by a large amount. That difference matters when the two point in different directions. Which of the two do you think the market is pricing this week?

Please share your own approach and reasoning, not calls for others to copy. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.