New York's factory index jumped to 25.5 while Philadelphia's fell to 20.9. Which regional survey do you trust?

Two regional factory surveys published the same week told different stories. The New York Fed's Empire State index rose 18 points to 25.5, its highest level in nearly five years, with new orders and shipments up (Empire report). The Philadelphia Fed's index fell from 37.8 to 20.9, the second monthly decline in a row, although it stayed positive (Philadelphia report).

Both are regional. The New York survey covers New York State manufacturers, and the Philadelphia survey covers the Bank's Third District. Neither is a national measure, and each can move sharply from one month to the next.

We would like to hear how you handle conflicting surveys:

• Do you look at the average of several regional surveys, or pick one you trust?
• Which survey do you think is more useful for predicting the national ISM index?
• When two surveys disagree, do you wait for hard data, or make a trade on the one that fits your view?
• Have you ever traded a regional survey and been caught out by the national figure?

PMIs explained covers the survey methods used in the national indexes.

The two surveys differ in sample and weighting: New York covers State manufacturers, while Philadelphia covers the Bank's Third District. Both were collected in the first half of October, so neither reflects the last week of the month. Comparing each with its own six-month history is a fairer test than comparing the two with each other.

Please share your own approach and reasoning, not calls for others to copy. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.