German factory orders fell 10.6% in August while output rose 2.0%. Which number do you lean on for Germany?

Destatis published two numbers for German manufacturing in the same week. Real new orders fell 10.6% in August on the month, in its provisional figures published on 6 October (orders report). A day later it reported production up 2.0%, with construction up 9.3% and carmakers' output down 5.4% (production report).

Orders lead output, so a fall of this size suggests weaker production in the months ahead. But orders can be dominated by single large contracts, such as aircraft or ships, and the monthly figure is volatile. Production, by contrast, reflects work already done.

We would like to hear how you read the pair:

• For Germany, do you put more weight on orders or on production when you judge the economy?
• Do you check the orders figure excluding large orders, and does that change your view?
• How do German numbers feed into EUR/USD for you, if at all?
• Does a divergence between orders and output make you more cautious about the euro?

The orders figure was published on 6 October and the production figure on 7 October, so the two arrived a day apart. Read side by side, as the articles do, they give a better picture than either one alone. Destatis labels both as provisional, and both will be revised.

Please share your own approach and reasoning, not calls for others to copy. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.