OPEC+ held quotas unchanged for November. Do quota decisions still move your oil or CAD and NOK trades?
On 4 October seven OPEC+ countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman) decided to maintain September's required production for November and to meet again on 1 November (full report).
The quota, though, is no longer the main constraint on supply. The International Energy Agency's September report put OPEC+ crude output at 33.11 million barrels a day in August and described a market where supply has been cut sharply by the conflict in the Middle East, with world demand forecast to fall by 2.5 million barrels a day this year (report). Brent has traded above $100 for much of September (report).
If producers are pumping below their limits already, a "no change" decision tells you less than it did when quotas were binding. Traders still watch the meetings because a hint of a change in policy can move prices before any barrels do.
We would like to hear how you handle it:
- Do OPEC+ meetings still affect your oil trades, or have you moved to watching shipping, inventories and the IEA's numbers?
- For the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone, do you trade the oil price or the OPEC+ headline?
- What do you check on the day of a meeting, and what do you ignore?
- Do you trade the weekend gap that a Sunday decision can leave?
Oil and inflation covers why energy matters beyond currencies.
Please share your own approach and reasoning, not calls for others to copy. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.
Background: Oil and inflation: how energy prices reach currency pairs
Oil prices feed inflation, inflation feeds central banks, and central banks feed currencies — the chain runs from Brent to every pair on the board. Here is the full transmission, with the current cycle as the case study.
How does oil affect inflation?
Directly, through fuel and heating prices, and indirectly, through freight and production costs. The direct pass-through lands within a month or two; the indirect spreads over quarters through the supply chain.
What is the headline-core gap?
The difference between headline inflation, which includes energy, and core, which strips it out. A widening gap is the energy shock's fingerprint in the inflation data.
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