Do you trade regional factory surveys like Empire State and Philly Fed, or wait for the national ISM?

Regional factory surveys arrive earlier than national ones. The New York Empire State index and the Philadelphia Fed index both came out this week, and the ISM manufacturing index for October is due in early November. The regional surveys cover single states or districts, which makes them noisy, but they are published sooner (Empire report, Philadelphia report).

For a trader, the question is whether an early reading is worth acting on. A reading that moves sharply can be a false alarm, while a reading that confirms a trend can add confidence to a position you already hold.

We would like to hear how you structure your data use:

• Do you use regional surveys as a signal, or only as background for the national release?
• How many surveys do you need to agree before you act?
• Have you back-tested how well regional surveys predict the national ISM?
• What is your rule for ignoring an early reading that contradicts your plan?

PMIs explained covers the national indexes.

The ISM index and the regional Fed surveys use different questions and samples, so a rise in one does not mean a rise in the other. Track both over several months before you rely on the relationship. Which regional survey has been the closest guide to the ISM for you?

Please share your own approach and reasoning, not calls for others to copy. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.