Philly Fed manufacturing index falls to 37.8 as its outlook gauge tumbles

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia published its Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey for September 2026 on 17 September, one of the first regional factory surveys of the month alongside the Empire State survey (report).

The figures

• Current general business activity: 37.8, down from 47.4 in August. 45.3% of respondents reported an increase and 7.5% a decrease
• Future general business activity (six months ahead): 52.9, down sharply from 73.6 in August. 57.9% expect an increase and 5.0% a decrease

Each index is the share of firms reporting an increase minus the share reporting a decrease, so both readings stayed positive even after the fall.

What it shows

Manufacturers in the Philadelphia Fed's Third District (Delaware, southern New Jersey, and eastern and central Pennsylvania) reported activity growing more slowly in September than in August, and their optimism about the next six months cooled by an even larger margin. A positive reading still means more firms saw improvement than deterioration, so this is a slowdown in the pace of expansion rather than a contraction.

Why traders watch it

Regional Fed surveys are published well before national manufacturing data such as the ISM index (report), making them an early, if noisy, read on the factory sector (PMI and business surveys explained). A fading outlook among manufacturers, alongside slower current activity, adds a modestly softer data point to the backdrop the Federal Reserve cited when it raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 September (report). The October survey is due 15 October. Live prices: the US 500.