How much do you trust a consensus forecast before a release?

Before a major release, the market usually settles on a consensus forecast, and the release is read against it. The forecast is an average of professional estimates, and it can be wrong by more than the surprise traders are trying to catch. How to use an economic calendar explains how to read the forecast next to the actual figure, and why the gap between the two is what moves most markets.

Members who trade around releases often ask how reliable a consensus is in practice. Some treat it as the benchmark, others look at the range of forecasts behind it, and a few check how far past releases have landed from the consensus. A forecast that everyone expects can leave little room for a surprise, and a wide spread of forecasts can mean the release is harder to read than the headline suggests.

We would like to hear how you use it:

• Do you treat the consensus as the benchmark, or only as a reference point?
• Do you look at the spread of forecasts behind the consensus?
• How often has a release landed far from the consensus in your experience?
• What would make you ignore a consensus and trade on your own view?

Please share your own approach and reasoning, not calls for others to copy. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.