How do you read a risk-off day in an equity index?

A risk-off day is one in which investors move away from riskier assets, such as equities, and toward cash, bonds or currencies seen as safe. Index traders often read these days through the same lens as currency traders, looking at what flows into the yen, the franc or government bonds while the index falls. Carry trade explained describes how the same flows can unwind carry positions, which is one reason a risk-off day can hit both currencies and indices together.

How do you read a risk-off day in an equity index? — leverage and margin diagram
Leverage: a small margin controlling a larger position

The question is how you tell a risk-off day from a normal fall in an index. A single bad session is not a regime, and members who trade indices often wait for the move to persist across sessions and across related assets before they change their plan. Leverage and margin explained covers how a leveraged index position is sized, which matters more on a day when the index moves quickly.

How do you read a risk-off day in an equity index? — trading sessions clock diagram
The four forex trading sessions across a 24-hour day

We would like to hear how you read it:

  • What would make you call a risk-off day, rather than a normal fall in the index?
  • Which related asset do you check first: the yen, a bond or the dollar?
  • Do you reduce index exposure on a risk-off day, or hold through it?
  • Have you misread a risk-off day? What signal did you miss?

Please share your own approach and reasoning, not calls for others to copy. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.

Background: Leverage and margin explained: margin calls, stop-outs and how losses grow

Leverage lets you control a large position with a small deposit. It magnifies losses exactly as much as gains, and it is behind most blown trading accounts.

What does 30:1 leverage mean?

You can control a position 30 times larger than your margin deposit. $1,000 of margin opens a $30,000 position, and gains and losses are calculated on the full $30,000.

What is a margin call?

A warning from your broker that losses have reduced your margin level to a set threshold. If it keeps falling, the broker starts closing positions automatically, which is called a stop-out.

Read the full guide

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