Riksbank on 3 November: after a 1.75% hold, what would make you expect a move?
The Riksbank held its policy rate at 1.75% in September, and its statement said the rate is held unchanged at 1.75 per cent (Riksbank decision, September 2026). The next decision is on Tuesday 3 November at 09:00 Swedish time. The decision and the Monetary Policy Update are published on Wednesday at 09:30, and the press conference follows at 11:00 (preview). Norges Bank decides a day later, on Thursday 5 November at 10:00 (preview). Because the Riksbank publishes its update the day after the decision, the statement and the update can read differently. For how inflation reaches a currency, see how inflation moves currencies.
Questions for members:
- Which line of the September statement would you read first to judge whether a move is coming?
- Do you wait for the Monetary Policy Update before you trade the krona, or act on the decision itself?
- Which central bank in this week's calendar is hardest for you to read, and why?
Background: How inflation moves currency pairs: the CPI transmission
Inflation is the input central banks watch most closely, which makes CPI the release that moves currencies most. Here is the transmission chain — from print to policy to price — and why the details beat the headline.
How does inflation affect currency prices?
Through central bank policy: higher inflation raises the odds of tighter policy, which attracts money and strengthens the currency. The chain runs from the print to the policy read to yields to the pair.
Why does the market react to the core CPI number?
Core CPI strips out food and energy, giving the cleanest read on underlying inflation. Central banks treat energy shocks as transitory, so the market's policy read focuses on the core measure.
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