Was the Bank of Canada hike already priced in? How do you check?

A rate hike can move a currency less than expected if traders had already priced it in. The Bank of Canada's 28 October increase, from 2.25% to 2.50%, was a 25-basis-point move (Bank of Canada: key interest rate). Whether it was priced in depends on what the market expected beforehand, and that expectation is not written on the bank's page.

Members usually check for pricing through market-implied rate expectations, the path of short-term interest rate futures, and the commentary that comes before a decision. Each method has limits, and none gives a clean answer on its own. The most useful check is often to compare the reaction on the day with what the bank said in the days before. How to trade the news covers planning around a scheduled decision, and why central bank language matters covers how the wording moves expectations.

We would like to hear how you check it:

• Which source do you use to judge what was already priced in?
• How do you tell a surprise from a move that simply finished a trend?
• Do you check the reaction in the first hour, or wait for the close?
• Have you traded a decision that was fully expected? What did the currency do?

Please share your own approach and reasoning, not calls for others to copy. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.