After a hike, do you trade the move or the trend in the loonie?

The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate target to 2.50% on 28 October 2026, a 25-basis-point move from 2.25% (Bank of Canada: key interest rate). A single hike is one event. A trend is a run of moves in the same direction, and the question for a trader is whether the first move is the start of one or a single adjustment.

Some members trade the reaction to the decision, which can be quick and then fade. Others wait to see whether the bank keeps moving, which takes longer and gives up part of the first move. The BoC trade-off analysis sets out the bank's reasoning on the 2.25% rate, which is a useful starting point for judging whether the path continues. How to trade the news covers planning around a release, and the same questions apply to a rate decision.

We would like to hear how you separate the two:

• Do you trade the first reaction to a rate change, or wait for confirmation on a higher timeframe?
• What would make you say the hike is the start of a trend rather than a one-off?
• How do you set a stop when the reaction and the trend point in different directions?
• Have you held a trade through a rate cycle? What kept you in it?

Please share your own approach and reasoning, not calls for others to copy. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.