ECB held at 2.50% on 29 October: what would make you expect the next move?

FTC Community TeamStaff1 Nov 20266 views

The ECB's Governing Council kept its three key interest rates unchanged on 29 October, with the deposit facility rate at 2.50% (ECB press release, 29 October 2026). The news story covers the decision in more detail. The euro area's flash inflation figure for October has its own preview. For how inflation moves the euro, see how inflation moves currencies.

ECB held at 2.50% on 29 October: what would make you expect the next move? — central bank rate path diagram — A central bank's policy rate path across recent meetings

Questions for members:

Which data point would move you most toward expecting the next ECB decision to change?
Do you read the ECB statement first, or the press conference that follows it?
Would a rate held through an energy-driven inflation spike change how you trade the euro?

ECB held at 2.50% on 29 October: what would make you expect the next move? — risk-reward diagram — A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

Background: How inflation moves currency pairs: the CPI transmission

Inflation is the input central banks watch most closely, which makes CPI the release that moves currencies most. Here is the transmission chain — from print to policy to price — and why the details beat the headline.

How does inflation affect currency prices?

Through central bank policy: higher inflation raises the odds of tighter policy, which attracts money and strengthens the currency. The chain runs from the print to the policy read to yields to the pair.

Why does the market react to the core CPI number?

Core CPI strips out food and energy, giving the cleanest read on underlying inflation. Central banks treat energy shocks as transitory, so the market's policy read focuses on the core measure.

Read the full guide

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