On a release, do you read the actual, the forecast or the previous figure first?

A typical economic release shows three numbers: the actual figure that was published, the forecast that the market expected and the previous reading. Most of the market reaction comes from the gap between the actual and the forecast, but the previous figure matters too, because it shows whether the trend is changing. The calendar lists all three for each release, and How to use an economic calendar is the first place a new reader should look before a release.

New traders often read the actual figure first and then search for what it means. A more useful order is to read the forecast, then the actual, then the previous figure, so the surprise is clear before the trend is considered. The comparison tells you whether the release was a surprise, and the previous figure tells you whether that surprise is a turn or a blip.

We would like to hear your order:

• Which of the three numbers do you read first on a release?
• How do you judge whether a gap between actual and forecast is a real surprise?
• When does the previous figure change how you read the actual?
• Which release has surprised you most, and what did the three numbers say?

Please share your own approach and reasoning, not calls for others to copy. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.